The UK Ministry of Defence has just launched Edition 7 of Global Strategic Trends (GST7), a comprehensive research project developed by the talented multinational and multidisciplinary team at Defence Futures (formerly the Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre).
GST7 provides critical insights for the ongoing Strategic Defence Review, offering a robust geostrategic context for shaping decisions on capabilities, partnerships, and strategy.
Covering a vast range of topics — from future geopolitics to technology, conflict, security, societies, and economies — GST7 is an invaluable reference for strategists, policy-makers, and researchers. It also dives into global regions and key shared spaces like the Arctic, Antarctic, oceans, space, and cyberspace.
Overview
Strategic foresight publications often begin with assessments of increasing ambiguity, complexity and volatility. Given that the story of humanity has been one of shocks and surprises as well as evolution, revolution and progress, it could be argued that there is nothing new in this.
Geopolitics tends to move between cooperation, competition and confrontation; trends and disruptions in the social, economic, environmental and technological spheres, which often bring an abundance of opportunities, can also trigger change that heightens volatility and even the risk of conflict.
Context
The geostrategic context in which previous editions of Global Strategic Trends (GST) were published illustrates this point. When the first edition was published in 2003, Russia was a partner to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and global terrorism was perceived to be the major security threat.
Mobile phones were basic by today’s standards and the world economy was expanding through globalisation. The publication of the third edition in 2010 was in the wake of a global financial crisis that would trigger waves of instability and herald shifts in geopolitical power. The sixth edition was published in 2018 in the context of shifting economic weight from West to East.
Notwithstanding a growing number of conflicts across the Sahel and Southwest Asia, and that Russia had already invaded Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine, geopolitical competition was viewed by many as an activity confined below the threshold of armed conflict – the global economy being considered too interdependent for states to risk war.
The present
Five years later, the world has witnessed a series of major geostrategic shocks: a global pandemic that killed millions, accelerating misinformation and disinformation, disruption as a result of technology advances, the war in Ukraine, and a growing crisis in Southwest Asia.
Geopolitical tensions have increased significantly across economic, diplomatic and security fronts; full-scale conflict with worldwide ramifications is now considered plausible.
The current international order is also seeing a growth in the influence of a range of state and non-state actors and an increasing diffusion of power. The Global South and small island states are demanding a greater voice, while middle powers, city networks, corporate bodies and powerful elites, as well as violent extremist and criminal networks, are exerting increasing influence.
All of this is taking place in the context of global economic transformation and energy transitions, shifts in resource demands, changing demographic structures, further advances in disruptive technologies and growing evidence on the impact of climate change.
Looking to the future
In 30 years’ time, humanity may have exploited its many strengths and opportunities to create a more equitable and sustainable future.
For example, shifts in energy provision may have been achieved, today’s emerging technologies may have matured in ways that bring multiple benefits to economies and societies, and further technological developments may be enabling humans to explore and understand the depths of the oceans and further into space.
Conversely, the world may have become overwhelmed 12 Global Strategic Trends 7 Executive summary by multiple challenges, including destructive conflict.
Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 (GST 7) attempts to postulate pathways to these and other worlds. However, one thing seems certain: those who are prepared not only to adapt to change but also embrace it seem most likely to succeed in this uncertain future.
Read the full report here and download the PDF here.
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