If Moscow fails to secure a decisive outcome in Ukraine, it is likely to look for a more achievable win elsewhere; if it does achieve a clear victory, the incentive for further risk-taking only grows.
Either way, European governments should assume they may have to deter and respond with significantly reduced US backing.
Of the potential options available to Russia, the most probable is also the least escalatory: a limited operation to assert control over Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, testing allied resolve while keeping the immediate military and political costs comparatively low.
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