As tensions rise in the Middle East, Israel has found itself on high alert, bracing for potential retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah and Iran. This follows the assassination of key figures in terror groups based in Beirut and Tehran.
The situation has spotlighted Israel's sophisticated air defence system, an impressive installation meticulously developed over decades. The events of April 2024, where Israel sustained a massive missile barrage from Iran, highlighted the effectiveness and challenges of this defence system.
Speaking with DW News in a recent interview, Universal Defence & Security Solutions (UDSS) adviser Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell discussed what might happen next. A former RAF pilot, Vice Marshal Bell’s thoughts were highly insightful.
Israel's air defence: A multi-layered shield
Israel's air defence is a complex system comprising short-, mid- and long-range layers designed to counter a wide range of threats.
“You’ve got to remember, Israel is the dominant military force in the region,” stated Vice Marshal Bell.
It’s been described as Israel's greatest defence challenge to date, and has managed to intercept 99% of the 300-plus drones, rockets, and missiles launched by Iran. The success of Israel’s defence lies in its dynamic approach, which features several critical components:
- Iron Dome: The innermost layer, Iron Dome, focuses on short-range threats like rockets and mortars. Developed with U.S. assistance, it has intercepted thousands of rockets since 2011, with an impressive 90% success rate.
- David's Sling: This mid-range defence system targets ballistic missiles launched from distances of 40 km to 300 km. Another U.S.-developed collaboration, it provides a crucial second layer of defence.
- Arrow System: The outermost layer, this is designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles, operating even outside Earth's atmosphere to safely disperse any non-conventional warheads.
Watch the full interview here for more detailed information.
The high cost of defence
While Israel's air defence system has proven effective, it’s come at a significant cost. Intercepting a single missile with the Arrow system costs between $2 million and $3.5 million.
110 Arrow missiles were used in the April 2024 operation alone, at a cost of some $385 million. The David's Sling system added somewhere between $550 million to $1.1 billion further to the defence expenses, with mid-range missiles costing around $1 million apiece.
Emerging technologies: The future of Israel’s defence
“We’ve got to be careful,” continued Vice Marshal Bell. “Systems like the Iron Dome are very effective, but only have so many missiles available at one time… you can actually overcome it, but it can differentiate between missiles fired into built-up areas and those into the desert.”
Israel's defence strategy continues to evolve, with new technologies such as the laser-powered Iron Beam due to be integrated into the existing layers of defence. These advancements promise to bolster Israel’s ability to protect its skies from increasingly sophisticated threats.
What role do Israel’s allies play?
Israel's defence isn’t just about its own capabilities - it also relies heavily on support from allies like the United States. “During the April 2024 attacks, coalition efforts, including contributions from the U.S. and the Royal Air Force, were crucial in defending Israel's skies,” said Vice Marshal Bell.
The Pentagon anticipates that any future retaliation from Iran could follow a similar - perhaps even more extensive - pattern to the April attacks, with Hezbollah likely to play a significant role.
Regional dynamics: A delicate balance
The situation in the region remains delicate, with Iran carefully considering its next move. While Iran has the capability to inflict serious damage on Israel, it is aware that a large-scale attack could trigger a devastating response from Israel, potentially leading to a broader regional conflict.
“Iran's pride has been wounded by recent events,” Vice Marshal Bell explained, “But it seeks to avoid escalating the situation into a full-blown war. It’s trying to find a measured response that demonstrates to Iran that it’s serious, it’s credible but also wants to avoid precipitating a war with Israel.”
Where to next?
As tensions continue to simmer, Israel’s multi-layered air defence system stands as a testament to the country's preparedness and resilience. However, the high costs and the ever-evolving nature of threats mean that Israel, along with its allies, must remain vigilant and ready to adapt to new challenges in an increasingly volatile region.
In April, Iran was able to glean a lot of information about Israeli military positions and which weapon the Allies were using to repel their airstrikes - so April would seem to be a rehearsal for what may happen in the near future.
“It will be very interesting to see how Israel responds… They've had a ‘dress rehearsal’, if you like, on the 13th April, and I have no doubt they will be better and more effective at shooting down those weapons if a big barrage comes again,” said Vice Marshal Bell.
He continued, “With military capability, it’s not what you see, it’s what you don’t see. The West prides itself on its technology being its isometric advantage, and I suspect that Iran hoped most of its missile systems would’ve been more effective in April…
Russia has also been delivering plenty of surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, and there’s speculation that while Russia claims these systems to be ‘undefeatable,’ they have actually been defeated by forces in Ukraine. So it’ll be interesting to see whether Russia’s missile supplies are used.”
If Iran used these Russian military supplies in their next offensive, the West would learn a lot about Russia’s military capability - so Iran isn’t well known for having a well-known military capability and almost certainly “shot its bolt in April,” concluded Vice Marshal Bell, “And we’re very concerned to ensure that it doesn’t give away all its state secrets and its capabilities in one shot.”
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